The Faith Position
Abstract: For practical reasons, we should trust that we probably will not go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization.
F1) we probably will not go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization [assumption]
To read a discussion of the faith position, see this post.
The Creation Argument
Abstract: If any advanced civilization probably creates many worlds like those in its past then we should trust an advanced civilization probably created our world.
C1) EITHER we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization OR any advanced civilization probably does not simulate many worlds like those in its past OR an advanced civilization probably simulated our world [simulation argument]
C2) EITHER we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization OR any advanced civilization probably does not create many worlds like those in its past OR an advanced civilization probably created our world [generalization of C1]
C3) any advanced civilization probably creates many worlds like those in its past [assumption]
C4) EITHER we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization OR an advanced civilization probably created our world [from C2 and C3]
C5) an advanced civilization probably created our world [from C4 and F1]
A common task to which computers are applied today is that of simulation. Flight and automobile simulators have been available both to the military and for entertainment for many years. Financial simulators have become important for investors, as medical simulators have improved our ability to train surgeons. Many persons enjoy playing games such as SimCity that simulate urban planning. Entire worlds are simulated, for both scientific and entertainment purposes, such as the popular virtual worlds, World of Warcraft and Second Life, in which persons buy and sell real estate, hold meetings, even dance, and generally engage in a virtual life through the proxy of their avatars. Over time, the quality of simulations has greatly improved. Users of early flight simulators saw only bumpy black and white outlines of abstract geometric features representing terrain above an equally coarse rendition of a cockpit. Today, full-color, three-dimensional geographies and other aircraft can be wrapped around a user inside a machine that moves to provide for realistic physical sensations.
As the computing power available to us continues to advance exponentially, it seems reasonable to suppose that one of the things we might do is run increasingly detailed simulations of our world and worlds like it. As the level of detail increases and the user interface improves, it would become ever more difficult to discern any difference between our world and the simulated worlds, to the point that, for all practical purposes, “simulation” or “virtual” would no longer accurately describe those worlds or the apparently sentient persons in them. Furthermore, if an advanced civilization simulates many such worlds, indistinguishable in degree of detail from its own world, then the advanced civilization itself is much more likely to be one of many simulated worlds than it is to be the only hypothetical non-simulated world. In other words, an advanced civilization that simulates many worlds like those in its past is almost certainly not the first or only to do so, and thus is probably simulated itself. This is the simulation argument, that at least one of these three propositions must be true: either we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization or any advanced civilization probably does not simulate many worlds like those in its past or an advanced civilization probably simulated our world.
We can generalize the simulation argument. Its form remains valid regardless of the particular creative process to which it’s applied. For example, for the same reasons that the simulation argument is valid, terraforming or cosmoforming arguments would be valid: either we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization or any civilization probably does not terraform or cosmoform many worlds like those in its past or an advanced civilization probably terraformed or cosmoformed our world. Extrapolating from these examples, we formulate a generalized argument: either we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization or any advanced civilization probably does not create many worlds like those in its past or an advanced civilization probably created our world.
Notice that the generalized argument in no way contradicts evolution theory, either logically or empirically. To the contrary, although the generalized argument remains valid across all the particular creative processes to which it might be applied, it may prove infeasible in many variations. In particular, variations of the generalized argument that contradict empirical evidence should be discarded, despite their logical validity.
It seems reasonable to suppose that any advanced civilization actually does create many worlds like those in its past. As mentioned previously, our civilization has already implemented innumerable simulations of worlds like our own with rapidly increasing detail. We’re also hard at work researching processes for space colonization, and even studying the processes by which our universe was formed. Given the diverse ways in which an advanced civilization might prove capable of creating many worlds like those in its past, it’s hard to imagine that any advanced civilization would prove incapable of doing so. Moreover, if capable, it’s even harder to imagine that they would uniformly choose not to do so. So choose your favorite creative process, whatever appeals most to your sense of feasibility. If you expect our civilization, assuming we do not go extinct first, will somehow prove capable of creating many worlds like our own then we may proceed together to the consequence of our expectation.
If any advanced civilization probably creates many worlds like those in its past then, according to the simulation argument, either we probably will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization or an advanced civilization probably created our world. Given the faith position, we choose to deny the probability that we will go extinct before becoming an advanced civilization, and so should trust that an advanced civilization probably created our world.
If ever we create many worlds like our own, we almost certainly would not be the first or only civilization to do so. Our perspective regarding our origin should account for our expectation regarding our creative potential. It would be remarkably inconsistent and extremely improbable to assert that we will eventually create many worlds like our own without also acknowledging that an advanced civilization probably created our world.
To read additional discussion of the creation argument, see this post.
