I found this to be a fascinating essay. It reminded me of the classic book, "The Birth Dearth." I find it very ironic that the whole population explosion theory has proven false, or at least within the developed world. Italy and Japan pave the way with frightening stats that have caused their governments to take alarmed notice. One of the reasons Japan pours so much money into robots development is that they like being a homogeneous population and prefer robots over foreign immigrants. Germany on the other hand, allowed massive foreign immigration (especially of Turks), but cultural assimilation has been slow going and much social friction has resulted. I have read the ugly "secret weapon" of Germany are the "blood laws" that originate from centuries ago. If you are seen as a trouble maker and cannot prove your heritage on both sides going back *ten* generations, German courts can give you the boot out of the country! This is their psychological and legal club in dealing with immigrants. Other European states to my knowledge do not have this option.
A great drop in religious belief and practice, combined with a love of money and materialism, has certainly been the prime cause of the Western birthrate drop. And so our worship of "false gods" is going to eventually hurt us severely. Even with our technological and economic power, I tend to wonder how long we can stay on top if we don't a fairly big population base for the the workers, taxpayers and soldiers we need (who will provide the tax base for the old and retired)? I realize a nation/power bloc with a small population but high tech & strong economy, can dominate less developed powers that have with big populations, but what is the cutting off point?
And don't forget that so many of America's scientific researchers are actually foreign workers who eventually will be going home (and improving their native nation's standing, which is both good and bad for us). We must improve the science education our public school students are getting, or we will permanently fall behind... All subjects here will be affected good or bad by whether or not the United States stays technologically competitive, especially considering the oncoming age of convergence Singularity technologies. It may be a case of winner takes all...
Regarding the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, I think Meyer is guardedly too optimistic. lol Yes, we established a democratic government there, but it is built on a foundation of sand and will blow away once we leave the area. As with Vietnam and what we did there, this government does not have a motivated indigenous military to protect it. And his point about how we should have invaded Iran first, well..., they would have put up a fight of Vietnam War proportions!, lol. The people would have rallied around there leadership (yes, I believe the leaders of Iran dearly wish we would invade them for the huge wave of support it would grant them for years to come) and used the mountainous terrain (and urban environments) to give us far far greater casualties than we are experiencing now. We should instead let time have it's necessary effect as the rising generation there come to power over the next several decades and relax the hold of the religious militants. Or is this a false bill of goods we have been sold and will they grow Fundamentalist in their views as they get older and rise in the power hierarchy?
The subject of China is a crucial one. I have my doubts that our economic ties are a guarantee of no military conflict between us. The relationship of modern-day China and the U.S. is eerily reminiscent to me of 1930's era Japan and America (strong trading partners who still had a war). I hope I am proved wrong. China pours a big portion of their GNP into modernizing their military and creating a blue water navy. And a recently discovered document from China's war college actually discussed using "third party" terrorism as a means to hurt the United States. Ouch!
But if the Chinese government hangs onto power they are going to have to deal wisely with the simmering anger of the common people. I recently saw a PBS documentary about dissent there and I was shocked at how the "system" at various levels did not allow for the proper voicing or treatment of people who had been violated by the rich and powerful. And even when the national media became involved the government/courts would not back down and do the right thing by the people. I get the impression the system there is afraid that if they deal out even a "little" justice that the commoners will get a taste for it and want a great deal more, possibly overturning the entire state of things. But if the government is not careful they may wind up fighting a nasty revolution/civil war, rather than engaging the West in the cold war era struggle for power they currently may envision. I think their solution will be a high-tech police state to rival anything Stalin or Mao could have ever imagined in their wildest dreams... We will see.
I will say that everyone worries about a China/Russia alliance against us, but there is a huge thorn wedged into that idea. When China was weak, the Russians moved in and seized some of their northern-most territories. These have since proven to have many many billions of dollars worth of mineral raw materials buried deep in them and the Chinese dearly want them back. Russia currently has their best military forces deployed *not* against Europe, but instead on their borders with China. I find this very interesting. But should Russia ever move these forces out, it would show a possibly disturbing strategic shift in Russian thinking regarding China and also the West.
Regarding outsourcing and the firing and rehiring of U.S. employees for the same jobs. I must say that often it is the rank and file employee that suffers the consequences, despite the companies involved getting greatly improved profits. The parent company that had offered solid insurance benefits and decent wages, is now freed from doing so by outsourcing. And the new company that scoops up those former employees, offers them such weak benefits and pay that it is pretty much an insult to the downtrodden workers. Yes, American workers will be a form of "economic mercenaries" who must enter into special contracts with their employers, and it will generally not be the protective cocoons of the past. More than ever, a good education (in the right field) is important so you can keep your head above water and even swim successfully forward. Welcome to the new economy!
From Herbert Meyer's essay:
On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace. We take it for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of the world.
Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us out.
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The so-called "culture wars" are certainly a hot topic. I like to ask, "whose America is it, really?" If we are a "Judeo-Christian culture," than I think our values should certainly mirror this idea. I hold dearly to the concept of a social contract between all U.S. citizens, whether at the lowest or highest levels of power. I see the key issue of the early 21st century, as to whether or not we can properly address this challenge. Can we provide financial/medical benefits to those in need and yet do so fairly? And can we do so without killing the motivation of people to work and improve themselves, when they are physically and mentally able? We must have a country where people generally want to have children and have the confidence that this is a nurturing environment for them. Our children will see that we truly do cherish our Judeo-Christian values and so they also will want to do the same and continue this legacy.
If America can do these things I think we have a great future, and we will be able to deal with the many other problems in front of us, such as foreign challengers. But if we fall into the trap of a bloated welfare state, or on the other hand, a viciously Darwinian corporatocracy that grinds down the common individual for the all-consuming goal of ever higher profit margins (and to hell with right or wrong, only money matters), we will not stay a great power, or at least one I want to be associated with. I believe in the old saying, "what makes America great is it's goodness."
John Grigg
