2018 Statistical Report of the Mormon Transhumanist Association

James Carroll

My name is James Carrolls. Good to meet you. I’m going to be giving the statistical report of the Mormon Transhumanist Association for 2018.

James Carroll

And these are the numbers at the end of 2018. The total membership is 794 with 73 voting members, 88 survey responses. And we have also the visits to transfigures. org, group numbers, page lengths, etc. , and some of the numbers that we’re tracking.

James Carroll

I also want to show some information about About trends through time. So here we have our membership trends through time. They’re growing for a time there. They looked like they were growing exponentially and then they kind of leveled off to a linear trend.

James Carroll

We have a similar growth trend on the left with the LDS Church. This is the LDS Church and us. And we have a similar problem with both of them, namely, how many of these people are actually active in the organization? If you take activity rates into account, this is Kimball, the Nom Reddit users analysis of that, Clint Kimball, and it looks like the actual membership of the LDS Church in active members’ rates. is flat.

James Carroll

So how do you define activity for the MTA? Because I’d like to actually report not just our membership numbers, but our activity rate, because once people join our roles, they kind of stay on the rolls unless they ask to be removed. So we have the same problem in the LTA. Yes, church does. So I did a couple things to try to estimate activity rates.

James Carroll

For example, I’ve got the survey responses over years. We didn’t do a survey the last two years. I also have a voting membership. The problem with both of those is they don’t always represent activity. People can be active and not be voting members. And the survey response really depends on how hard we push it. In the email lists and things. So, this isn’t a perfect measure either, but it gets at something.

James Carroll

You can also look at transfigurous. org hits. One of the things we see here is that when we lost our ad, we used to get free AdSense words. from Google. And when we lost those in 2015, our page views took a dive and haven’t quite recovered, although I believe the AdSense words are now back.

James Carroll

But there’s another trend going on here that is beyond just our activity rate, and that is that interest in and the way people engage with the MTA has shifted from the web. to social media. So as social media has risen, the usefulness of the web page has declined and the hits on the web page has declined while the Facebook group has grown.

James Carroll

So here’s our Facebook trends. And of course, it’s not quite at zero, starts at seven K. But but you notice that our page likes has grown steadily over the last two years. And unfortunately, I’d really like to go further back in time because I can’t get a trend if I just have a year. But these numbers are only available Facebook only makes them available to the admins of the page for a year. So what we’re going to do is save these numbers, and then next year we’ll get new numbers and we’ll add that because we will have saved the old numbers We’ll actually start to get in the future these trends going back further and further, and I’ll be able to tell you more about this sort of thing.

James Carroll

But again, how many people are in the group isn’t the same thing, and this is our group members. As how active they are in the group, because again, we have a similar problem. You can be in the Facebook group but not be active. And so we actually get a chance to look at the number of posts Which has been roughly flat over the last year, and the number of active members, and I think Facebook defines active members as someone who commented or posted so many times within the last month or something. And you can see those numbers are roughly flat. They don’t seem to be growing. But if I get again, if I can go further back in time, we could see the trends better. And so we’re going to facilitate that for the future. So these are the sort of things I want to work on.

James Carroll

The YouTube trends are also interesting. There was a large spike in 2012 up to about 2015, and then it starts to maybe appear a little bit, but then it kind of stays flat from about 2016 on.

James Carroll

So, how do we define success? I think this is the real question we need to ask ourselves. What does it mean to be successful and what are we trying to accomplish? If our goal is growth, We do seem to see some indication of growth, but for the most part, I think our numbers are roughly flat.

James Carroll

But we can also define success as the individual benefit we provide. I mean, I see the MTA Is an organization of my friends that provides me a useful service. For example, you help me find a soft landing from my faith transition when I left the LDS church and helped me. Organize my life as I left the church and find a new sense of purpose and meaning in life as I did that. So, in that sense, the organization was successful. For us as individuals.

James Carroll

So we can start looking, we can look at how we provide these services to individuals, or we can look at how fast we’re growing. And again, I think what we need to do is make a decision about what our goals are and how we define success as an organization. And that will also change what we try to do going forward. Do we try to grow, or do we try to provide useful services for the people who are already here?

James Carroll

So, who is the MTA? The MTA isn’t a person, but I’m going to kind of personify as that’s not quite right because there’s going to be people who won’t fit these broad statistical trends I’m going to I’m going to describe. But in order to decide what we’re trying to accomplish, it helps to know thyself, which is what the Greek there at the bottom says. And so I designed a survey for 2018 to try to help us know ourselves.

James Carroll

And there are two things you can do with a survey. You can ask the same question over and over, and that will give us trends through time. But you can also compare apples and oranges. You can ask the same question to different groups of people. And then we can compare the MTA to Mormons in general or to Catholics or to the general population of the US.

James Carroll

The problem is we can’t effectively survey the general population of the U. S. We don’t have the financial resources or the time and effort to do that. What we can do is, we can ask ourselves questions that other people have asked other groups. And so that will allow us to compare us to other organizations.

James Carroll

And I chose to do the latter this year. We’ve done the former, where we’ve tracked ourselves through time. This year, I chose to do the latter. And that had some benefits and some downsides.

James Carroll

I chose the Pew Religious Landscape Survey because it was very useful. These questions were asked in 2007. They were asked again in 2014, and then we asked them in 2018 for our organization.

James Carroll

There are limitations, though. The Pew survey was designed to survey people in the US. So I apologize to people like Julio. We asked these questions that some of our international people looked at and said, these don’t make sense. And I knew that. And next year, we’ll do something different. Maybe that’ll make more sense to our international members. But by asking these questions, we were able to compare ourselves To the U. S. population that was surveyed by Pew.

James Carroll

Also, the wording of these questions had to be identical, or we couldn’t make this comparison. And the question wording sometimes really stunk, especially for Mormon transhumanists. So sometimes they’d ask questions in a way that We wouldn’t really phrase things, and some of you struggled and talked to me about how you had struggled to find the right answer to these questions. I get that, but I had to ask it exactly the same way, and we’ll try to do something different.

James Carroll

Next year, we’ll do something different every year. And then, what I want to do is every five years or so, we’ll ask the exact same questions, our standard survey questions, and then we’ll be able to track ourselves through time. Every five years. We’ll also be able to compare ourselves to these other groups by doing these sorts of questions every so often.

James Carroll

So, there are a whole bunch of data. I’ve got gobs of data, and there is no way I can present all of it. So, I’m going to present. Overview, but I’m also going to write a report that is half written right now, and we will release that report. I hope that when this is put on YouTube, that report will be in the notes. And you’ll be able to go read that report yourself and get the actual details. And what I’ll present here is just an overview because we’ve got a lot of really fun data that’s really nice to look at, and you can gather all sorts of insights from. So let me just give an overview of some of the more interesting bits.

James Carroll

First, our demographics. The first thing to note is that we mostly live in the US, but not all. This is one of the reasons that using Pew kind of made sense, because it tells us something very important about our US. Members, but we don’t all live in the U. S.

James Carroll

If you look at where in the U. S. we live, this is also very interesting. The General Religious Landscape Survey said that 55% of Mormons live in Utah, 19% of the rest live in Idaho. And you get about one percent in California, Washington. But if you look at the MTA, a lot less of us live in Utah, and we don’t have very many people at all in Idaho, but we got a lot of people in California and Washington. And this is what I call the Silicon Valley More MTA effect. We are Silicon Valley people.

James Carroll

The other interesting bit is that Mormons, because we have the Pew survey in several years, you can see that Mormons are getting older. Through time. So the age rate from 30 to 40 is growing, and the 18 to 19-year-old is shrinking. So Mormons are getting older. If you look at the MTA, though, we’re middle-aged. We don’t have very many people in the young group, and we don’t have many people in the older group, so we’re mostly middle-aged.

James Carroll

Indicates something that we need to think about. The age group that predominates is the age group of the founders. So the founders of the organization started it and And invited their friends, and we’ve struggled to engage the next generation. And we have some of those people that come, but we struggle to engage the next generation. And of course, we don’t have very many older people.

James Carroll

We’re largely male, so we’re a mostly male organization. There are females here, but not as many, about 18%. And we have, interestingly, two people who identified as queer, one as intersex. One who was other. We had a couple people refuse to tell us what their gender was. And again, compared to Mormon in general.

James Carroll

55% of the LDS population, or the Mormon population when I say the Mormon population, these are just self-identified Mormons. Which means it could be LDS Mormons or RLDS or other Mormon groups. Anyone who said they were Mormon is what the Pew surveyed. 54% of those are women. And so there’s more women than men. In the Mormon group, and there’s more men than women in the MTA.

James Carroll

We’re also very white, which isn’t surprising because the LDS Church is also very white. Or the Mormon group is also very white.

James Carroll

And we’re also highly educated. In fact, most of us, 46% have a postgraduate degree, and 34. 5% are college graduates. That’s a very, very well-educated population. And if you compare that to the Mormons, Mormon in general, only 23% have college and only 10% have a postgraduate degree. So we are highly educated. And we’re more educated than the Mormons in general, and Mormons in general are highly educated compared to the U. S. population. So that is all very interesting information.

James Carroll

Apparently, we are very white and nerdy. But we are also rich, white and nerdy. 40. 9% of us make $100K or more, which is again higher than the LDS population in general, and probably indicates our education level.

James Carroll

But what kind of white and nerdy people are we? Are we living at home in our parents’ basement? This is from online. Great music video if you like country music. Anyway.

James Carroll

19% of Mormons in general have never married. But if you look at us, 76% of us are married. 66% of Mormons in general are married. So again, that might have something to do with our ages, but we’re actually more of us are married than the general LDS population or Mormon population. And they are highly interested in families to begin with.

James Carroll

We also have a lot of children. So, I can’t tell you how many dogs we have, but we’re married, we have kids, we’re not living in our parents’ basements, despite the fact that we’re nerdy. So this is an interesting, I guess, picture of the MTA as an organization and what kind of people we are.

James Carroll

Let’s talk about our religious beliefs. The Nuns is a growing group in the U. S. , and 16% of us identify with the Nuns, but 70% are LDS Mormon. There are 8% who are non-LDS Mormon.

James Carroll

That’s very interesting material. And there’s even 12% Unitarian Universalists. A couple Buddhists. One person decided to click all of the above. That’s why we have a Jehovah’s Witness in there, but he identified as everything. I’m not sure how influential or how informative that was, but I think he was trying to convey something that’s probably meaningful. But I don’t think we actually have someone who is a Jehovah’s Witness, so I wanted to kind of clarify how that came about. Yeah.

James Carroll

Most of us believe in God, but not all of us. There’s 17. 9% don’t. The answers here depend on how you ask the question.

James Carroll

We asked it two different ways, and we got two very different answers. Compare this to the LDS. The LDS, much higher percent would claim to be absolutely certain in their belief in God. So, not only do we do not as many of us believe in God, we’re not as sure. of our beliefs. So there’s more uncertainty in the MTA, which is interesting.

James Carroll

Let’s talk about our practices. We attend services less often. Now, I’m going to go through these quickly and just give the high value. I’m not even going to read the numbers, but get the general idea. We attend services less often.

James Carroll

We have less sense of peace and well-being than LDS, than Mormons in general, but we have a greater sense of wonder and awe. Than Mormons in general. Now, I think that’s interesting, and it may say something about the purpose of the organization.

James Carroll

Is it possible to have both? And I think it is. And maybe one of the things we can think about and do in the future is what can we do to provide both a sense of peace and well-being in the midst of our greater uncertainty and our lower church attendance rates, etc. Can we provide some of that sense of peace and security while preserving that sense of wonder and awe? And what can the MTA do to help us have both?

James Carroll

In fact, that was the goal of the last talk I gave a couple of years ago at the MTA, where I talked about developing a sense of peace and et cetera, in the midst of a faith transition. That’s why I chose that topic and talk. I think it’s very important and something we can do to help.

James Carroll

Our beliefs in science are interesting. Mormons in general are the third worst when it comes to belief in evolution as a measure of how well we believe in and accept scientific realities. The only group that’s worse is the Jehovah’s Witnesses and the Evangelical Protestants. But when we turn to the MTA

James Carroll

91. 7% of us believe and accept human evolution, although we do have 4. 8% who I would categorize as young Earth creationists, extreme deniers of evolution.

Speaker 2

Which is much lower than the LDS rate in general.

James Carroll

Among those who believe in evolution, 59% say we evolved naturally. And only and 29. 9 would describe some sort of God-guided sense of evolution. And if we compare that to you have to do some math to get To get the numbers as presented by Pew, but natural evolution would be 65. 1%, God-guided evolution would be 27%, and young earth creationists would be again 4. 8%. Which is quite different than the LDS population.

James Carroll

I keep saying the Mormon population in general, as surveyed by Pew. So we’re very different from the Mormon population in general in terms of our acceptance of evolution as a scientific reality.

James Carroll

So let’s talk about government and politics for just a minute. The MTA is politically active. Most of us are registered to vote. Most of us are there’s far more of us who are Democrat and Independent than the general LDS Church, which ranges.

James Carroll

In fact, you can see the polarization that took place in the U. S. In the trends in the Mormon numbers, where 65% would have been Republican, but now it’s up in the 70s, are Republican, whereas from us, we have 9. 6% are Republican and the rest are Independent and Democrats. So we’re far more liberal.

James Carroll

And one of the things I would like to know, by the way, is one of the best predictors Of whether you’re a Republican or Democrat in the U. S. , which is new, it started in 2016, it was even bigger in the last election, is education level. And that’s a new thing. We didn’t used to be sorted by education level, but we are now. One of the questions is, is the extra education of the MTA alone responsible for our Further democratic lean, or is there other effects going on? And we’d like to dig into the data a little more and answer that.

James Carroll

We have far more liberal views on environment. You’ll again notice the polarization effect over time. Mormons didn’t used to believe that environmental regulation was bad, but they do now, and it’s grown dramatically. since the twenty sixteen election. Well, before that, it was the cause, I think, of what we some of what we saw in twenty sixteen. And then you see the MTA has very different opinions on that matter.

James Carroll

Abortion is the hot button topic in the U. S. and has been for years. But 74. 7% of Mormons, or if the MTA, would claim that abortion should be legal. In all or most cases, as compared to only 27% of Mormons.

James Carroll

So let’s talk about social justice briefly. Most of us know somebody who is gay. Probably isn’t surprising because we probably know some people from the MTA. But homosexuality should be accepted. That’s a very interesting question.

James Carroll

2% of the NTA would say yes, whereas 24% of Mormons would have said so in 2007, whereas 36% of Mormons would have said so in 2014. So what we see is A very rapid shift in Mormon opinions on the subject, and the MTA is out ahead of that trend. And that shift is mostly among, if you go delve into the Pew numbers, among younger Mormons, whereas our shift is among middle-aged and older Mormons. So I think that’s a very interesting kind of demographic trend.

James Carroll

When you talk about gay marriage, let’s see, 83. 2% favor, either strongly favor or favor favor. Only six percent oppose, and we don’t have anyone who opposes lightly. Everyone who opposes opposes strenuously in the MTA. And ten percent don’t know. As compared to Mormons who oppose or strongly oppose at a rate of sixty eight percent. So still more than half of Mormons oppose gay marriage and marriage equality, whereas in the MTA those numbers are flipped.

James Carroll

So I want to try to make some so what comments and then I’m done. Recommendations, one of the things we need to do, I think, is clarify our purpose. It’s our purpose to grow and fill the world and convince everyone that this technological change is coming and they need to get ready, and they need to get ready the way we want them to get ready. Or are we here to facilitate that discussion? And if we are going to facilitate that discussion, again, to what size group? Do we want to grow so that a lot of people participate in that discussion, or do we want to provide a service? for a smaller group who can participate in that discussion together? Or do we want to promote that discussion widely? I think we do. But we also need to set reasonable and attainable goals and we need to know ourselves and our audience, I think.

James Carroll

When we look at the trends in the MTA membership, we learn something not just about who we are, but about who our audience is. Is our audience active LDS members? Well, most of us are active, our LDS Mormons, but how active are we? And then the other question is. Are we growing among the inactive LDS, the liberal LDS, the conservative LDS? What is our audience and where can we find growth? And we find out that Google ads are matter a lot for Transfigurist, and engagement is shifting to social media, so we need to pay attention to that and follow it where it’s going.

James Carroll

Our YouTube channel, I believe, is underutilized. And so, one of the things I can ask all of you is if you can promote these, especially the conference videos and this sort of thing. In social media, to make sure that the YouTube channel is used to a higher degree, that’s one of the things we can do to make a difference and do a better job. We can individually promote the YouTube channel.

James Carroll

And we need to kind of activate our kids. And I know that that’s a comment in general for religions in general, but I think we have a chance to do that in a way that religions don’t. We’re an organization. that gets together and talks about technology. And our kids are highly tech savvy. And if they have a problem with organized religion, that doesn’t mean which the rising generation seems to if we follow the trends, that doesn’t mean they can’t participate with us. And come and talk about technology and the implications and ethics. So we have a chance to activate the next generation, I think, in a way that maybe a religious group doesn’t.

James Carroll

So I’d like your feedback on things we can ask in 2019. We’ll do something different. I had a very specific goal this year. Next year, we’ll do something a little different. And I’d love feedback. Yes. No, I don’t know now. So I’m soliciting feedback, and I don’t want it now anyway. I want emails so that it’ll remember that sort of thing. So I’m asking everybody for feedback. Send me emails and messages. Help me to get ready for next year and we’ll do this again. Thanks.